A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
